The mystical spell of Blackjack has one concrete parameter.
When we think of blackjack, and all of the dealers over the
years who have smiled slyly as they watch the casino take
your money, there is a trump card we know exists, a way to
win we've all heard about. Contrary to popular belief, card
counters do not memorize every card they have seen dealt out
of a deck or shoe. Card counting also does not allow a player
to magically know what card will be dealt out the deck or
shoe next. If you see someone take a hit on a hard 18 against
the dealers 10 and he receives a three for a total of 21,
it doesn't mean that he is an expert card counter, it means
he doesn't know much about the game actually. A card counter
knows the game, understands the importance of basic strategy,
and would never do such a reckless thing. Yes, if the cards
were dealt down to the last few in the deck, a good card counter
would probably know what card is likely to come next. But
in the real world of casino blackjack you will never be involved
in a game where the cards are dealt down to the last remaining
cards. The reason for this is simple; it would give a huge
advantage to even the novice card counter.
So can card counting be done? Yes of course it can. Can it
be done successfully? That depends on the where's, when's,
and how's involved. Just to keep everyone on the same page
here, I'm not going to lead you down a road just to strand
you. In fact, before I even begin discussing card-counting
techniques, I need to tell you exactly why, when and where
they don't work. Lets take Vegas for example. The last time
I was in Vegas I played a couple of casinos blackjack games,
and took note of the current practices employed. At the Bellagio
for example, the game was either six or eight deck, it mattered
little, as about half way through the shoe, the dealer places
all of the dead cards back into the top of the automatic card
shuffler's stack, and the whole stack was reshuffled. No hope
for counting cards in this situation. A Sam's town the situation
was a little brighter, they play a six deck shoe close enough
to its toes, but as a standard measure they burn the first
card after every reshuffle.
So whats to be learned from this? If your planning on counting
cards in Vegas (phhh, contained snicker) then the Bellagio
isn't your best bet. Try Sam's town, but don't tell them I
sent you.
I will go over two methods of counting cards on this page:
The first being a truer system, but one which takes a lot
of time to master, the second I call 'informal' card counting
and it takes much less effort. The basic premise of card counting
is that any given deck is 'rich' in face cards (a higher instance
of these cards means that on any given new card to be drawn,
chances are it will be worth 10) favors the player over the
dealer. This is true for several reasons.
A player receiving a 'natural' blackjack, an ace and a ten-point
card, is paid 3-2 on his original bet, whereas the dealer
only wins the wager if he or she has blackjack. If the dealer
receives a poor hand as the original two cards (IE: a point
count of 12 to 16), they must draw another card and they are
more likely to bust if the deck or shoe is rich in face cards.
Remember, you don't have to hit these hands if you don't want
to; the dealer however must. This situation is called 'the
dealers showing busting cards' and may account for many instances
where you've watched someone play blackjack and not take a
hit on a 14 or 15 total. If you were wondering why, its probably
because the dealer was showing busting cards. With a two card
hand totaling 9, 10, 11, the dealer can't double in a high
card rich deck, but you can. Take advantage.
When the number of low value cards far outnumber the face cards and aces, a
blackjack player can choose to modify his or her split and double down decisions,
since the chances of winning these hands are reduced when a low card is dealt
to the player after a split or double down. To sum up, card counters use a betting
system, or strategy, of betting their smallest wagers when the deck or shoe
is rich in low points cards, since their chances of winning in this case are
reduced. When the deck or shoe is rich in high cards the card counter will increase
their original bet since their chances of winning are now increased.
So how does a blackjack player actually count cards? How
do we know when a deck is rich or poor? Well, there are many
different techniques that have been researched and invented
to keep track of the cards played from a shoe. Some of these
techniques are difficult to master, while some are easy to
learn. Here again, computer simulations of the many different
methods of card counting have shown that some of the easiest
card counting systems to learn are just as effective as the
more traditional and complicated methods.
Standard Hi-Low
One of the most popular counting systems currently in use
is the point count system, also known as Hi-Low. This system
is based on assigning a point value of +1, 0, or -1 to every
card dealt to all players on the table, including the dealer.
Each card is assigned its own specific point value. Aces and
10-point cards are assigned a value of -1. Cards 7, 8, 9 each
count as 0. Cards 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 each count as +1.
As the cards are dealt, the player mentally keeps a running
count of the cards exposed, and makes wagering decisions based
on the current count total.
The higher the plus count, IE: the higher percentage of ten-point
cards and aces remaining to be dealt, means that the advantage
is to player and he/she should increase their wager.
If the running count is around zero, the deck or shoe is
neutral and neither the player nor the dealer has an advantage.
The higher the minus count, the greater disadvantage is to
the player, as a higher than normal number of low cards remain
to be dealt. In this case a player should be making their
minimum wager or leave the table.
As the dealing of the cards progresses, the credibility of
the count becomes more accurate, and the size of the player's
wager can be increased or decreased with a better probability
of winning.
It is important to note that a players decision process,
when to hit, stand, double down, etc. is still based on basic
strategy. Remember, you MUST learn basic strategy. However,
alteration in basic strategy play is sometimes recommended
based on the current card count. For example, if the running
count is +2 or greater and you have a hard 16 against a dealers
up card of ten, you should stand, which is a direct violation
of basic strategy. But considering that the deck or shoe is
rich in face cards you are more likely to bust in this situation,
thus you ignore basic strategy and stand. Another example
is to always take insurance when the count is +3 or greater.
For the most part however, you should stick with basic strategy
and use the card count as an indication of when to increase
or decrease the amount of your bet, as that is the whole strategy
behind counting.
Generally speaking, if the count is +2 or greater in a single
deck game you should increase your initial bet. Of course,
when are we ever playing in a single deck game anymore?
In a multiple deck game your wager should be increased when
the 'true count' is +2 or more. What's the difference between
a running count in a single deck game versus the true count
in a multiple deck game? The true count in a multiple deck
game is based on the actual number of decks left to be played.
For example, in a single deck game if the first six cards
dealt are small cards you have a running count total of +6,
which is a nice advantage to the player. If the first six
cards dealt in a multiple deck game are all small cards you
also have a running count of +6. However, this doesn't add
up to the same advantage because you have several decks in
the shoe left to be dealt, therefore you must use a true count
as your basis of increasing your wager. If you're at a six-deck
game, and the first six cards are small ones, the count per
remaining deck (the true count) is actually just a bit over
1, since there is just a bit less than 6 decks remaining to
be played.
To determine the true count, divide the 'running' count by
the number of decks remaining to be played. What this means
is the number of decks left, whether they'll actually be played
or not. In a six-deck game for example, a deck or more may
be cut off by the dealer after the shuffle, but that means
nothing when computing true count. Now figuring out the actual
number of decks remaining isn't as difficult as you might
think. Simply observe how many cards are in the discard tray.
Using a six-deck game for an example, if you see about 2 decks
in the discard tray you then have four decks left to be played.
So at this point a running count of +8 translates into a true
count of 2 because there are four decks left in the shoe.
IE: Running count of 8 is divided by number of decks remaining,
in this case 4, and the result is 2. 8 divided by 4 = 2. The
dealer may shuffle before all four of those remaining decks
have been played, but for true count conversion that doesn't
matter.
So that's how you count cards. Yes, it takes a bit of practice
and concentration and that may take away some of the enjoyment
of playing the game. However, you may also choose to use an
informal counting system, which is much easier to master.
Informal Card Counting
Informal card counting is just that, informal. It doesn't
take a lot of concentration or mathematical calculations,
and demands little use of your memory.
You already know that a deck rich in face cards is an advantage
to the player. All you need to do is casually observe the
flow of cards coming out of a deck or shoe. For example, if
you are playing a multiple deck shoe and after a few hands
you observe that very few face cards or aces were played you
have a situation where the next hand will probably be good
for the player. Thus, you increase your bet.
The key to this system is to look for extremes. The absence
or predominance of exposed high cards is easily noticeable
by casual observation. Often you will play several hands where
the mix of face cards and low value cards are relatively even.
But when you see a noticeable absence of high value cards
you should increase your next wager.
Casual card counting is something you should always do unless
you are following a strict card counting system such as the
Hi-Low system. It won't guarantee winners for you on every
hand, but it will give you a slight advantage.
Shuffle tracking
This method is based on the observation that cards tend to
"cluster" in certain parts of a multi deck shoe,
and that the shuffling of the cards at the conclusion of a
shoe can be tracked by a player so that he can determine which
portions of the next shoe will be high in player friendly
cards. A breakdown of this method follows.
When playing a new shoe make note of the flow of cards while
mentally dividing the shoe into sections equal to one deck.
Now you need to observe which portions of each section that
are high in Aces and ten-point cards.
Rate each section as being rich or poor in high cards and
then make note of how the cards are placed in the discard
box.
At the end of each shoe, watch how the dealer shuffles the
new shoe. Keep track of where the clusters of high cards are
located, and where they will surface in the dealing of the
next shoe. Have fun with that. I just give the information,
I don't make it up.
When playing this next shoe, increase your wager when you
reach those sections of the shoe that are rich in high point
cards, and decrease your wager when the deck is rich in low
point cards.
